Rejecting capital-skill complementarity at all costs

Any serious empirical study of factor substitutability has to allow the data to display complementarity as well as substitutability. The standard approach reflecting this idea is a translog specification – this is also the approach used by numerous studies analyzing the relative capital-skill complementarity hypothesis formulated by GRILICHES (1969). According to this hypothesis, the degree of substitutability between skilled labor and capital is lower than that for unskilled labor and capital. Yet, the results of empirical studies investigating this hypothesis are controversial. This paper offers a straightforward explanation: Using a translog approach reduces the issue of factor substitutability or complementarity to a question of cost shares. Our review of translog studies mentioned in HAMERMESH?s (1993) summary on the demand for heterogeneous labor demonstrates that this argument is empirically relevant – all these studies can be reconciled with each other on the basis of the cost-share argument. --Substitutability,Translog Cost Function

On the Restrictiveness of Separability: The Significance of Energy in German Manufacturing

Any researcher would certainly agree with Hamermesh’s (1993:34) intuition about separability that the ease of substitution between any two production factors should be unaffected by a third factor that is separable from the others. This paper emphasizes that such a notion of separability needs to be more restrictive than the classical separability concept is.We thus coin the notion of strict separability that implies the classical concept. By applying both separability concepts in a translog approach to German manufacturing data (1978–1990), we focus on the empirical question of whether the omission of energy affects the conclusions about the ease of substitution among nonenergy factors. We find ample empirical evidence to doubt the assumption that energy is separable from all other production factors even in the relatively mild form of classical separability. At least under separability aspects, therefore, energy appears to be an indispensable production factorSubstitution, Translog Cost Functions

Measuring Energy Security – A Conceptual Note

Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years.Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This paper conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply into a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany and the U.S. (1980–2004), we find that there is a large gap in the energy supply risks between both countries, with Germany suffering much more from a tensed energy supply situation today than the U.S.Herfindahl index, energy supply risk indicator

The empirical assessment of technology differences: comparing the comparable

This paper compares technologies across space and time on the basis of factual and counterfactual substitution elasticities and argues that differences in estimated substitution elasticities should be decomposed into two counterfactual components. While the first component is designed to indicate how the ease of substitution is altered by varied economic circumstances, the second addresses the question of how technologies would compare under genuinely comparable situations. This argument is illustrated by the example of energy-price elasticities of capital before and after the oil crisis of the early 1970s. --Counterfactuals,Substitutability,Translog Cost Function

Emissions Trading: Impact on Electricity Prices and Energy-Intensive Industries

The EU-wide Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), established in 2005, is a key pillar of Europe’s strategy to attain compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. Under this scheme, CO2 allowances have thus far been allocated largely free of charge. This paper demonstrates that such cost-free allocation, commonly called grandfathering, implies an increase in electricity prices even when strong competition prevails on electricity markets.As our estimations for Germany’s power sector show, these price increases result in substantial windfall profits, giving rise to public skepticism and calls for an auctioning of certificates in the future.While empirical evidence on the ETS’ impacts is scant, the findings reviewed here indicate that even in the absence of certificate auctioning, energy-intensive industry sectors, such as primary aluminum production, may suffer heavily from the ETS-induced electricity price increases.We therefore argue that an abrupt transition to a complete auctioning system may endanger the competitive position of energy-intensive industries in Europe, unless all other major industrial and transition countries are integrated into a global emissions trading system.Grandfathering, auctioning, competition

Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon

This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that, if extended to 2020, threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and theEUEmissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic support. Along the lines of the International Energy Agency (IEA 2007:77), we therefore recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.Energy policy, energy security, learning effects

A Regression on Climate Policy - The European Commission's Proposal to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Transport

As part of its efforts to reach the targets of the Kyoto Protocol, the European Commission is currently considering a new directive to reduce the per-kilometer CO2 emissions of newly registered automobiles. This paper critically assesses this proposal with respect to its economic and technological underpinnings. We argue that the proposal’s reliance on targets based on per-kilometer emissions not only conceals the true costs of compliance and thereby stifles informed public discourse, but is also less cost-effective than alternative measures such as emissions trading.We further examine the proposal’s underlying assumptions, finding that these misrepresent the current state of automotive technology and therefore may overestimate the feasibility of achieving the suggested emissions targets. Alternative targets are consequently proposed that are argued to more accurately reflect the industry's technological evolution to date.Technological progress, private automobiles, efficiency standards

Hard Coal Subsidies: A Never-Ending Story?

In Germany, hard coal has been subsidized for almost half a century. Despite the declining significance of hard coal production for the domestic labor market, the magnitude of subsidies increased until the middle of the last decade. In 1996, they peaked at € 6.7 bill.While German hard coal subsidies have been shrinking to € 2.7 bill. in 2005, it is very likely that they will be extended well into the next decade and even beyond. This article discusses the feeble arguments raised by the proponents of hard coal subsidization in Germany and other EU countries. Most importantly, in addition to the drain imposed on public budgets, these subsidies imply a substantial opportunity cost, leading funds away from alternative, more beneficial public investments. From a social welfare perspective, we therefore recommend the rapid abolition of these subsidies not only in Germany, where in nominal terms the accumulated amount of subsidies has now by far exceeded € 130 bill., but all across Europe.Energy policy, energy security, coal mining

Measuring Energy Supply Risks: A G7 Ranking

The security of energy supply has again become a similarly hot topic as it was during the oil crises in the 1970s, not least due to the recent historical oil price peaks. In this paper, we analyze the energy security situation of the G7 countries using a statistical risk indicator and empirical energy data for the years 1978 through 2007.We find that Germany’s energy supply risk has risen substantially since the oil price crises of the 1970s, whereas France has managed to reduce its risk dramatically, most notably through the deployment of nuclear power plants. As a result of the legally stipulated nuclear phase-out, Germany’s supply risk can be expected to rise further and to approach the level of Italy.Due to its resource poverty, Italy has by far the highest energy supply risk among G7 countries.Herfindahl Index, Energy Supply Risk Indicator